In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released this month, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has unveiled significant shifts in the sugar market for the 2023-24 period.
The report highlights changes in sugar production, imports, and ending stocks for both the United States and Mexico.
The USDA forecasts a notable 5% decrease in Mexico’s sugar production for the upcoming year, with an estimated production of 5,016,000 tonnes, the lowest since the 2009-10 season. Despite the lower production, Mexico’s ending stocks remain steady at 900,000 tonnes.
This decline is anticipated to be offset by higher imports, reaching 510,867 tonnes, and a decrease in exports to 814,000 tonnes.
Contrastingly, the United States is expected to experience a surge in domestic sugar production, reaching a record-high of 9,391,000 short tons, raw value, for the 2023-24 period. The increase is attributed to higher cane sugar production, particularly in Louisiana, and a record beet sugar production of 5,407,000 tons.
Imports are also projected to rise, with a forecast of 3,310,000 tons, including a record 575,000 tons in high-duty imports.
The forecasted changes in production and imports contribute to an upswing in the ending stocks-to-use ratio for the United States, rising from 12.8% in December to 13.7% for 2023-24. The only notable change in sugar use is in exports, which are expected to increase by 60%, mainly due to higher exports to Mexico.
These projections have implications for the global sugar market, as Mexico’s reduced production may influence the overall supply chain. With the United States set to achieve record-high domestic production, there could be potential shifts in trade dynamics and market prices.
As the agricultural landscape evolves, stakeholders in the sugar industry will closely monitor how these forecasts materialize and whether they will impact international sugar markets. The USDA’s WASDE report serves as a key indicator for industry players, policymakers, and consumers alike.
This forecast provides valuable insights into the dynamics shaping the sugar industry in North America, paving the way for informed decision-making among market participants.
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