The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has raised its forecast for global cereal production in 2023, bringing positive news for the agricultural industry worldwide.
According to the latest report, global cereal production is now estimated to reach 2,819 million tonnes, marking a 0.9 percent increase compared to the previous year.
This upward revision is primarily driven by more positive yield estimates for two key players in the global grain market – the Russian Federation and Ukraine.
These countries have experienced continued favorable weather conditions, leading to improved crop yields. However, the report also highlights challenges in Canada, where persisting dry weather in crucial crop-growing regions is expected to result in notably lower cereal output.
In a detailed breakdown, the FAO’s Cereal Supply and Demand Brief reveals that global wheat production is projected to reach 785 million tonnes, while coarse grain production is anticipated to reach 1,511 million tonnes, reflecting a substantial 2.7 percent increase from 2022. World rice output is forecasted to be 523.1 million tonnes.
The report also notes that global cereal utilization for the 2023/24 period is expected to surpass the previous year’s figures by 0.8 percent, reaching 2,804 million tonnes. This growth is attributed to increased wheat consumption. However, in the case of rice, the forecast suggests a second consecutive season of no or negative utilization growth. This is due to ongoing reductions in non-food uses offsetting the population-led increase in rice food consumption.
Furthermore, global cereal stocks by the end of the 2024 season are expected to reach a record high of 884 million tonnes, exceeding opening levels by 3.0 percent. This is accompanied by a projected cereal stocks-to-use ratio of 30.8 percent.
In conclusion, the FAO’s latest report presents a positive outlook for global cereal production in 2023, driven by improved yields in some regions. However, challenges persist in other areas, highlighting the importance of continued monitoring and adaptation in the ever-changing world of agriculture.
“Global cereal stocks by the end of the 2024 season are expected to reach a record high of 884 million tonnes
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